Which States Are Seeing the Biggest Special Election Swings?
Democrats have done well in low-profile races across the country since Trump's inauguration, but the swing is far from uniform.
With midterms around the corner, special elections can offer direct, if limited, insights into voter sentiments straight from the ballot box. Based on data compiled by the Downballot, swings in the national House vote in midterm years have correlated reasonably well with special election shifts (I wrote about this in more detail here). Of course, US politics is about winning key states, not the national vote. Special elections could provide some insights at the state level, too, but the correlation looks pretty weak.
That brings us to the current election cycle. Since 2025, dozens of special elections have been held across nearly half of all states, showing a wide range of outcomes.
As with past years, some states have only held one or two special elections, so it’s important not to read too much into their results. To help with this, I made the following swing index, shrinking a state’s shift if fewer races were held there.
Iowa and Florida top the list with the most negative swing index values so far, indicating strong Democratic showings in multiple elections. Both states will be important to watch this fall:
In Iowa, Republicans are defending an open governor’s office and Senate seat. If the Hawkeye State is really undergoing a uniquely large leftward shift, both races could prove competitive in spite of Iowa’s heavy Republican tilt.
Down in Florida, the GOP is hoping to gain House seats by implementing a new congressional map. Since the state is already precariously gerrymandered, an aggressive redraw needs a few things to go right to unseat more Democrats. A sharp leftward shift is not one of them.
On the opposite end, Washington held a series of special elections in November 2025, and Democrats underperformed in all of them by single digits. While there aren’t any highly competitive statewide races in the Evergreen State this year, its third congressional district could be a swing seat to watch.