Texas Senate Primary Poll Averages
Three Republicans and two Democrats vie for the Texas Senate seat
What’s new
We’re seeing some last-minute movement in the polls, which isn’t unusual for primaries with this many undecideds. On the Democratic side, Talarico has taken a narrow 2.9% lead after final polls from Emerson and YouGov. Paxton is widening his lead in the GOP primary, while Hunt is collapsing. Two of the last three polls have put Paxton over 40%, so if he overperforms and undecided/Hunt voters break for him, Republicans could avoid a costly runoff.
Poll average
Learn more about how this poll average works here.
More details
On March 6, Texas voters will choose the Democratic and Republican nominees for the state’s Senate race. On the Republican side, incumbent John Cornyn faces a challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, who commands strong support from the GOP’s MAGA base. In October 2025, Representative Wesley Hunt entered the race, making it difficult for any candidate to secure 50% of votes. If that occurs, the top two candidates will progress to a runoff on May 26, 2026.
Among Democrats, state legislator James Talarico faces off against Representative Jasmine Crockett after Colin Allred dropped out. While Crockett initially held a large name recognition advantage, Talarico has shown strong fundraising capabilities, making for a second competitive race.
Texas has long been a Republican stronghold, but Democrats have to put up a fight here if they are to win Senate control in 2026. The exact dynamics of the next election will depend on who wins these primaries.