Texas Senate Primary Poll Averages
Three Republicans and two Democrats vie for Texas's Senate seat ahead of the 2026 midterms
What’s new
The polling drought has ended with new polls from Emerson and HIT Strategies. In the GOP primary, Paxton remains in the lead, though his margins are narrower than ever. Among Democrats, Talarico appears to be rapidly closing in on Crockett.
Poll average
Learn more about how this poll average works here.
More details
On March 6, Texas voters will choose the Democratic and Republican nominees for the state’s Senate race. On the Republican side, incumbent John Cornyn faces a challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, who commands strong support with the GOP’s MAGA base. In October 2025, Representative Wesley Hunt entered the race, making it difficult for any candidate to secure 50% of votes. If that occurs, the top two primary candidates will progress to a runoff on May 26, 2026.
Among Democrats, state legislator James Talarico faces off against Representative Jasmine Crockett. While Crockett initially held a large name recognition advantage, Talarico has shown strong fundraising capabilities, and is quickly rising in the polls.
While Texas has long been a Republican stronghold, Democrats have to put up a fight here if they are to win Senate control in 2026. The exact dynamics of the next election will depend on who wins the primary elections.