2026 Senate Polling Averages
Tracking the latest polls out of every battleground state
What’s new
With Senate primaries less than a month away, we’re launching our first general election poll averages of the cycle: Ohio, Alaska, New Hampshire, and Nebraska, where polling has been relatively stable (and it’s pretty clear who the nominees will be). Further down, you’ll find a table with polls of other races—these will get their own averages as Election Day approaches.
Polling average
Learn more about how these averages work here.
Background
Ever since the Republican Party secured a 53-seat Senate majority in 2024, Democrats’ path to retaking the chamber has been narrow. Because Vice President JD Vance can break any 50-50 ties, the party needs 51 seats—a net gain of four. That means defending New Hampshire and Minnesota, both narrow Harris states, and holding onto Michigan and Georgia, carried by Donald Trump.
Assuming that the GOP fails to flip any of these, Democrats can set their sights on Susan Collins of Maine. She represents a relatively blue state, but is also arguably the strongest incumbent Senator in the country. After Maine, Democrats can target the open seat in North Carolina. To round out the night, they’ll need another two flips in deep red states. So far, early polling indicates that that three could prove vulnerable: Ohio, Alaska, and Nebraska.